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Harlow Real Estate Market Report

Harlow Real Estate Market Report 2324 1394 admin
  • Overview

Harlow is a town and local government district in the west of Essex, England. It is a new town, situated on the border with Hertfordshire and London, Harlow occupies a large area of land on the south bank of the upper Stort Valley, which has been made navigable through other towns and features a canal section near its watermill.

The M11 motorway passes through the east of the district, entirely to the east of the town. Harlow has its own commercial and leisure economy. It is also an outer part of the London commuter belt and employment centre of the M11 corridor which includes Cambridge and London Stansted Airport to the north.

  • Location & Transportation

Harlow has easy access to other towns and cities in the UK. It is served by two mainline stations and can reach London Liverpool Street in 45 minutes, London Stansted Airport in 17 minutes and Cambridge in 40 minutes. Harlow is within a 40-minute drive to Tottenham Hale, where he can take the Victoria Line to London’s West End.


Harlow Transport Map
  • History

Old Harlow

Old Harlow is a village-size suburb founded by the early medieval age and most of its high street buildings are early Victorian and residential, mostly protected by one of the Conservation Areas in the district. In Old Harlow there is a field named Harlowbury, a de-settled monastic area which has the remains of a chapel.

The New Town

The original Harlow New Town was built after World War II to ease overcrowding in London and the surrounding areas due to the devastation caused by the bombing during the Blitz. It is one of the results of the New Towns Act of 1946, with the master plan for Harlow drawn up in 1947 by Sir Frederick Gibberd. The town was planned from the outset and was designed to respect the existing landscape. Each of the town’s neighbourhoods is self-supporting with its own shopping precincts, community facilities and pubs.

The town centre, and many of its neighbourhood shopping facilities have undergone major redevelopment, along with many of the town’s original buildings. Subsequently, many of the original town buildings, including most of its health centres, the Staple Tye shopping centre and many industrial units have been rebuilt. Gibberd’s original town hall, a landmark in the town, has been demolished and replaced by a new civic centre and The Water Gardens shopping area in the 1980s.

Redevelopment

Since becoming a new town, Harlow has undergone several stages of expansion, the first of which was the “mini expansion” that was created by the building of the Sumners and Katherines estates in the mid-to-late seventies to the west of the existing town. Since then Harlow has further expanded with the Church Langley estate completed in 2005, and its newest neighbourhood Newhall has completed the first stage of its development, with the second stage underway in 2013. The Harlow Gateway Scheme, also completed, first involved the relocation of the Harlow Football Stadium & the building of a new hotel, apartments and a restaurant adjacent to Harlow Town railway station. Phase 2 of this scheme involved the construction of 530 eco-homes on the former sports centre site and the building of the Harlow Leizurezone adjacent to the town’s college in the late 2000s/early 2010s.

Other major developments under consideration include both a northern and southern bypass of the town, and significant expansion to the north, following the completed expansion to the east.

The south of the town centre also underwent major regeneration, with the new Civic Centre being built and the town’s famous Water Gardens being redeveloped in the 1980s, a landscape listed by English Heritage.

In 2011 the government announced the creation of an enterprise zone in the town. Harlow Enterprise Zone consists of two separate sites under development, at Templefields and London Road, with the London Road site divided into north and south business parks.

  • Amenities

Environment

Harlow is located in the upper Stort Valley, on the border between Hertfordshire and London, offering the best of both worlds. A short walk from open green Spaces, including 164-acre Harlow Town Park, just 30 minutes by train from central London.

Scenery of Harlow Town Park

Map of Harlow Town Park

Restaurants, Shopping and Leisure

The city centre of Harlow is home to a number of shops and restaurants and is home to the Harlow Leisure Area and Harlow Playhouse.

Schools

There are many famous primary and secondary schools in and around Harlow. According to Ofsted, the leading school raters in the UK, schools rated Outstanding or Good in Harlow and surrounding areas were:

Primary School

School Name Rating
Hare Street Community Primary School and Nursery Outstanding
Pemberley Academy Good
Little Parndon Primary School Good
Freshwaters Primary Academy Good

Secondary School

School Name Rating
Burnt Mill Academy Outstanding
St Mark’s West Essex Catholic School Good
Stewards Academy – Science Specialist Good

There is also an independent school, St Nicholas School, in Harlow, which is not included in Ofsted Ratings.

Outstanding/Good Schools in or around Harlow
  • Famous Industry

Raytheon and GlaxoSmithKline both have large premises within Harlow. In July 2017 Public Health England had bought the vacant site from GSK (GlaxoSmithKline) hoping to move altogether 2,745 jobs there, of which about 500 are from Porton Down.

Nortel had a large site on the eastern edge of the town, acquired when STC was bought in 1991, and it was here that Charles K. Kao developed optical fibre data transmission. Nortel still has a presence, but it is much reduced. The site now is host to electronics, education and housing companies. One of Europe’s leading online golf stores, Onlinegolf, is based in Harlow.

  • Big Developments nearby on Sale

Harlow Quarter – by Strawberry Star Homes

Strawberry Star Homes has launched an exciting new residential-led, mixed-use development in Harlow, a key Essex regeneration hotspot. Harlow Quarter is set to transform Harlow town centre with planning permission for 523 new apartments, set amongst beautifully landscaped public spaces and a retail avenue. Currently available is phase 1 of the scheme which will comprise of 163 new apartments. The development is estimated to be fully complete in 2022.

Price List of Harlow Quarter (by Strawberry Star Homes)

Property Type Area (sqft) £/sqft Value per Unit
1 Bed Apartment 497 £469 £233,000
2 Bed Apartment 611 £484 £296,000

Gilden Park – by Barratt Homes

Gilden Park is a popular development located in Old Harlow. Following the success of phase one, Barratt Homes is now selling phase two which has a selection of 3- and 4-bedroom homes plus the last remaining one-bedroom apartment (sold out) available to purchase using Home Reach’s Part-Buy-Part-Rent scheme. This development has plenty of open space and parks on its doorstep, excellent commuter links, good and outstanding schools nearby.

Price List of Gilden Park (by Barratt Homes)

Property Type Area (sqft) £/sqft Value per Unit
3 Bed Mid-terrace House Not Provided N/A £378,000
3 End-terraced Bed House Not Provided N/A £388,500
3 Bed Detached House Not Provided N/A £420,000
4 Bed Detached House Not Provided N/A £537,500

Gilden Park – by Taylor Wimpey

Another new development in Gilden Park is operated by Taylor Wimpey. Offering a range of stylish 1- and 2-bedroom apartments (sold out) alongside 2- and 3-bedroom houses, this development offers a brilliant range of starter homes with excellent links to London. Taylor Wimpey’s Gilden Park development is close to excellent schools and transport links, and the homes are designed with the needs of a range of buyers in mind, meaning there is something for everyone.

Price List of Gilden Park (by Taylor Wimpey)

Property Type Area (sqft) £/sqft Value per Unit
2 Bed Coach House 653 £481 £314,000
3 Bed Semi-detached House 866 £467 £404,000

Gilden Park – by Persimmon

Part of Gilden Park is Persimmon’s collection of stylish modern homes which forms an extension to Old Harlow in Essex. Nestled in the Stort Valley to the west of the county, and on the Hertfordshire border, its location is highly sought-after.

The development operated by Persimmon has characteristics as follows: (1) Mix of 1- and 2- bedroom apartments (sold out) and 2, 3, 4 and 5 bedroom homes; (2) M11 and the M25 nearby; (3) 3 miles from Harlow town centre; (4) Within catchment of outstanding schools; (5) Beautiful countryside surroundings; (6) London Liverpool Street in under 40-minutes by train.

Price List of Gilden Park (by Persimmon)

Property Type Area (sqft) £/sqft Value per Unit
2 Bed Mid-terrace House Not Provided N/A £330,000
2 Bed Semi-detached House Not Provided N/A £335,000
3 Bed Detached House Not Provided N/A £410,000
4 Bed Semi-detached House Not Provided N/A £440,000
4 Bed Semi-detached House Not Provided N/A £450,000
4 Bed Detached House Not Provided N/A £465,000
4 Bed Detached House Not Provided N/A £475,000

Atelier – by Countryside & Home Group

Atelier is a Countryside development in partnership with Home Group. With a wide choice of house styles and accommodation, all benefitting from the superb Countryside design and specification, it’s a development suitable for first time buyers, couples and growing families alike.

Price List of Atelier (by Countryside & Home Group)

Property Type Area (sqft) £/sqft Value per Unit
1 Bed Terraced House 700 £450 £315,000
2 Bed Terraced House 704 £494 £348,000
4 Bed Terraced House 1129 £376 £425,000
4 Bed End-terraced House 1129 £376 £425,000
On-Sale Big Developments in Harlow
  • Real Estate Market

According to Rightmove’s report at the end of August, Harlow is where new sellers have been most tempted to come to market, with the number of new listings up 121% compared to the same time last year.

Rightmove Housing Report in August

CBRE 2018 report also shows that house prices in Harlow to rise by 20% by 2023. In its 5-year forecast released in 2018, CBRE predicted 18% rental growth in Harlow between 2019 and 2023, which is similar to London at an average of 3.6% per year.

Strawberry Star estimates that Harlow is a place where the yield of housing property investment can reach up to 5%.

In addition, we can predict Harlow’s future housing market from the population growth figures. The government-led regeneration of Harlow and the establishment of Harlow Enterprise Zone in 2017, will create more clusters of jobs and, along with population growth, boost demand for housing. More than 44% of them are Londoners. Demand for housing is strong, driven by a projected population growth of 22% by 2039 and a shortage of housing supply.

Location of Harlow Enterprise Zone

References

Barratt Homes (2020) Gilden Park. Accessible at: https://www.barratthomes.co.uk/new-homes/essex/h685001-gilden-park/

Countryside (2020) Atelier. Accessible at: https://www.countrysideproperties.com/all-developments/essex/atelier?gclid=Cj0KCQjwnqH7BRDdARIsACTSAdtUg9m2-RXorgtEdB6t3ahR24LM_RB3Z3UXovcIlQK9k4sm5jCk65gaAsBAEALw_wcB

Harlow Enterprise Zone. Accessible at: http://harlowez.org.uk/about-harlow-enterprise-zone/

Persimmon LTD (2020) Gilden Park. Accessible at: https://www.persimmonhomes.com/gilden-park-10406

Strawberry Star (2018) Harlow Housing Market Report. Accessible at: https://strawberrystar.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Harlow-Housing-Report-Strawberry-Star.pdf

Strawberry Star (2020) Harlow set to be revitalised as Strawberry Star launch new Harlow Quarter development. Accessible at: https://www.strawberrystar.com/news/press-releases/harlow-set-to-be-revitalised-as-strawberry-star-launch-new-harlow-quarter-development/

Strawberry Star (2020) Harlow Quarter – Essex. Accessible at: https://strawberrystar.co.uk/developments/harlow-quarter-essex/

Taylor Wimpey LTD (2020) Gilden Park. Accessible at: https://www.taylorwimpey.co.uk/find-your-home/england/essex/harlow

Rightmove (2020) Stamp duty holiday sparks home-moving frenzy. Accessible at: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/articles/property-news/stamp-duty-holiday-home-moving-frenzy

The impact of COVID-19 for the UK property market

The impact of COVID-19 for the UK property market 1798 1200 admin

We are obviously all facing huge professional and personal challenges associated with COVID-19 and now more than ever we need to communicate with each other.

There were three crosses cutting the key themes we need to focus on diversity, environmental, impact and the three main property sectors first of all would have leash and cook who lead off talk about the residential markets, the commercial markets and finally focusing on the rural market.

The economists generally believe that this will be a V shaped downturn and a V shaped recovery the question I suppose in everybody’s minds is what the shape of the V V will and shows the 2 scenarios which have been put forward from by Oxford Economics and Morgan Stanley. On the house price forecasts is that on the basis of those two scenarios they are forecasting that whichever scenario takes place there will be no net loss in GDP over the five year.

• Oxford Economics are forecast there suggesting that in the second quarter of this year the economy contracts by 2.5% before a strong rebound in the fourth quarter of the year and that rebound lasting through into the first half of next year there is likely to be some downside risk and they are forecasting that this downside risk instead of being a 2.5% percent contraction of the economy and in the next quarter is 3% and the banks back in terms of economic growth takes a little bit longer.

• Morgan Stanley they are forecasting that the economy will contract by five point 5.1% this year but rebound by 5.6 to 5.7% next year so whichever forecast and then a pretty strong recovery thereafter what does that mean then in terms of some of the you can see that in essence that sharp V is also reflected in a temporary increase in unemployment under both the base case and the downside scenario that is relatively short lived and that is crucially important for example to the UK housing market.


Housing Market

If we look at unemployment and contraction of the economy is likely to be a prolonged period of low interest rates, which in the context of the UK housing market, that would suggest that affordability for those people with stable incomes is not going to be a significant problem, so in a black downside scenario around interest rates stay lower for longer but, at the end of the five year period end up broadly where they would have been in the base case.

I suppose is it will it be as benign as this will it, perhaps be more severe, and it’s against that context that it really depends on the depth of interaction and disruption, which we have to business from measures of social distancing and, they like and how long they last. The only clues that we can really take from that is what happens in other countries, for example the experience of China and within China the first peak in cases occurred just 36 days from the first case being notified, on the 31st of December. There was a subsequent peak in cases when they changed the way in which they were reporting and clearly there was a lag in terms of the number of deaths, that were being reported as those cases translated through into fatalities later down the line but, in the case of China where the social distancing restrictions and, restrictions on the movement of people, were pretty strict, there was a period of broadly at three weeks where there were 1000 cases or more being confirmed each day and, thereafter, the drop off was relatively significant, so now we are beginning to see very slowly life begin to return to something approaching normality across most of the major cities of China.

I suppose whether or not that can be replicated across the EU and in that respect, I think it’s probably worth doing to that of the UK, so on the left hand side shot here, you can see the number of newly confirmed cases in Italy and, the number of newly confirmed deaths, as well, you can see there for a period now of a week to 10 days, we seem to have hit something of a plateau in terms of the new cases, there is at the moment for a little the drop off in terms of those cases but, I think it’s that market and what happens within Italy that is going to give us the clues to the length of the disruption may happen within the UK. Somewhat less through the cycle in terms of case and growth in cases, within the UK has lot to do with the effect of social distancing but it’s also worth remembering that Brexit itself is not entirely gone away, the uncertainties of Brexit may well pale into insignificance compared to those which we currently face.

For a single quote which we felt encapsulated the role of property within an uncertain word a world and in that respect we chose this one it is taken from Superman the movie in 1978 and it simply says “Son stocks may rise and fall utilities, and transportation systems may collapse, people are no damn good, but they will always need Land” so against that context where does it leave the UK housing market? We suspect there are probably four key factors:

• General Uncertainty, which is likely to weigh on consumer confidence and I suppose, in addition to that, over the recent past we have seen that way on the confidence of some of the mortgage lenders.
• Physical Practical, difficulties in moving and executing a transaction, and it’s here that we are looking for the industry to adapt whether, that be through delayed completions whether, that be through the use of legally binding, and watertight licenses where a seller, for example, remains in occupation of the property post completion, whether that could delay the marketing.
• Stock Market Falls as making people feel less secure about their personal wealth.
• Long Lasting Impact on the housing market, is the negative impact on earnings employment and indeed wealth generation against that context.

Transaction levels in the UK housing market that will bear the brunt, and, in that respect, we have looked at 2 scenarios.

• First of those, the period to June transaction levels take the down to 40% of their five year average and stay there until September and, increasing back up to about 80% of that benchmark level by January and back to 100% by may 2021, before you see some of the pent up demand come back into the market in 2022 as confidence is restored in people’s earnings and job security.
• The second scenario is a little bit more severe, more of an impact where transaction levels take it down to just 20% of their five-year average, take longer to increase up to 60% by January and, then again get back to 100% to May 2021.

In terms of transaction levels across the UK, in November last year we were forecasting that transaction levels would consistently be around 1.2 million over the course of the next five years, now they may fall this year to somewhere between 565 thousand transactions and 745 thousand transactions before getting back to about one point 1,000,000 next year then that pent up demand coming back into the market in 2022 before getting back to something approaching normality through 2023 and 2024. So that is translate as prices will have all of the charts, shows you the relationship between inflation adjusted house price movements and growth in the economy.

Reality nominal prices continue to rise it was rampant inflation, that drove inflation adjusted price prices into negative territory, the two of course that we remember much more clearly is the late 1980s early 1990s and, the period immediately post GF see when prices fell by 20 to 25% in nominal terms what’s also important. At the moment we haven’t seen the same level of house price growth either on a cumulative basis, or indeed in terms of a spike of house price growth prior to the disruption that occurred in the market, and it’s for that reason against the context of a relatively up subsequent upswing in the economy, that we think that pricing arm is perhaps less exposed than it would have been in previous downturns.

What is clear, however, is that the recovery becomes restricted as long as unemployment stays relatively high, it’s only when unemployment levels full that we see the capacity the house price growth, to come back, as people become more secure about their job security and more secure in their earnings, and against that context that the Oxford economics forecast of unemployment is for a relatively short, upward spike in unemployment do but generally maintaining relatively high levels of employment across the economy, so again, that suggests that it protects on the downside and leaves us with some ability for a V shaped recovery in the housing market, subject to a little bit of a delay, because perhaps of Brexit and the period over which people need to retain and rebuild consumer confidence.

– We think for first time buyers, to become more cautious certainly over the near term, that means, their numbers are likely to be more dependent on the availability of help to buy, and we suppose help to buy is likely to be a very important feature of the market, as house builders eventually start to build up levels of delivery on their sites and it will be clearly some pressure from government to be able to do that, so that may well present an opportunity for first time buyers to make use of help to buy at a point when house builders need to be quite pragmatic on pricing and probably offering incentives to get them on the market.
– For those trading up, again a short term impact but I suppose the experience of living in the close confines, with the rest of your family at a house that you squeeze yourself into for the last five years and delayed the decision to trade up, may just trigger a bit of a release of demand, as these people have realised their need for more space and as confidence resumes go back into the market and then in terms of downsizers again, clearly a short term impact.
– The older generations are now decided that actually, now is the time to right size the attractions of retirement housing in the longer term, particularly where they have assisted level of care may become more attractive.
– Mortgage buy to let landlords, I think it’s going to be hard work the experience, of any terms of any form of rent arrears at a time, when they are already under significant financial pressure, you may make them question whether or not they remain in that market, those issues less have an impact for debt free private landlords, because they’re not squeezed in the same way under tax policy and, indeed have the capacity to absorb rent arrears more significantly, probably when the longer term will play to the hands of institutional investors.
– Finally, the specialist sectors I don’t believe that the experience self-isolation and social distancing is a huge advert for the code of in sector, clearly it could have some impacts on the care home sector, in the longer term, for retirement housing it may just open up and expands that market, whereas, for student accommodation are a lot depends on what is going to happen to flows of international students going forward.

Word of caution, clearly these scenarios are made at a point, in time and in a period, of significant uncertainty they are likely to change their circumstances unfold.


Commercial Market
We have already dealt with the sort of two possible scenario, the key for me is, in terms of the pace of the recovery, though is to take a term that was used very commonly during their post global financial crisis.
The big difference between this crisis and, previous market crisis that we’ve seen is, actually the sort of the limited level of bank led sales that we’re going to see. I think post the GF see a lot has been learned, I don’t think we’re going to see a lot of stock being jumped on the market and, I think core investors are generally going to remain relatively motivated, they’re all going to be looking at the occupational story and, my sort of simple headline comment on the occupational challenges going forward, or if you think about leasing income, the shorter it is the more at risk. As well, to remember Brexit remains a risk with a justifiable delay potentially to the UK trade negotiations, properties starting to look like a relatively safe place to be least worst asset, as probably, it will be less development activity, over the next 18 months to two years, than we were expecting at the beginning of the year, this leads through potentially to lower vacancies and an uptick in rental growth logistics.


Rural Market
The impact on rural property markets and, also then look at how sustainability, might drive some of the decisions that come off the back of the coronavirus crisis, in terms of their economic incentives. Now we are in a situation of food crisis, where supermarkets are really having to gear up, to make sure that their distribution challenge from us, major switch between eating out of the home to eating in the home, it is met through a change in food supplies farming may well be one sector of the economy which is not a really adversely impacted.



Source: Savills
https://www.savills.co.uk/research_articles/229130/298508-0?utm_source=ExactTarget&utm_medium=Email&utm_term=5258548&utm_content=7724527&utm_campaign=COVID-19+Webinar+thank+you+-+non-attended++-+March+2020

Recession Opportunities – April 2020

Recession Opportunities – April 2020 1350 900 admin

Reasons to Invest in Real Estate During a Recession

 

REAL ESTATE INVESTING speaks to a variety of investor needs, including diversification and income generation. So it’s important to understand the value of property investments in a portfolio during a recession.

When the stock market is doing well, prices tend to go up as investors have more capital. When the stock market is doing poorly, investors who are looking for other opportunities find that real estate is a safe haven or in other words, an economic slowdown may be a reason to buy real estate rather than shy away from it as falling asset prices can create a buyers’ market if other investors are forced to sell.

Still not sold on real estate investing? Here’s a look at the merits of investing in property when the stock market moves into a sluggish cycle:

  • Property investments can produce stable income.
  • Real estate may be less sensitive to volatility.
  • Property may outperform stocks and bonds


Property Investments Can Produce Stable Income

One of the chief reasons to consider making property investments is the opportunity to generate income.As an income stream, real estate investing tends to offer predictability in a recession.

Real estate investors have another edge when it comes to using rental income to offset the effects of a recession in a position to hedge against inflation and changing interest rates when they have control over rental prices. Raising the rent at lease renewals, for instance, allows investors to keep up with rising prices associated with inflation. This asset class can offer more flexibility than stocks and bonds in a recession.

Real Estate May Be Less Sensitive to Volatility

For Example, stock market volatility can add to an investor’s recession woes if stock prices are making wide swings. That can directly affect the return profile of a portfolio. Real estate’s relative low correlation to stock market movements, on the other hand, can make it a more reliable choice during a recession. Because of the steady nature of revenues from real estate, it can often be a good hedge against volatility


Property May Outperform Stocks and Bonds

Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance – that’s one of the oldest investing rules. But real estate could prove profitable when the economy moves toward a recession if stocks and bonds falter.

In short, a recession can open up opportunities to invest in real estate. Investing wisely means managing the balance between supply and demand. When supply is high and demand low.

Investors can position those properties as rentals or rent-to-own until the needle shifts back to low supply and high demand. At that point, the property can be sold for a profit. When evaluating properties, focus on quality and return potential, as well as the time frame involved.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/real-estate-investments/articles/reasons-to-invest-in-real-estate-during-a-recession

 

 

Busiest ever month on Rightmove as EU exit spurs property market into action

 

PROPERTY has seen a boom in the market after Brexit, with sales up on this time last year. It has been the busiest month ever recorded on Rightmove after the UK finally left the EU last week.

The property market appears to be enjoying a boost as the UK left the EU. Property sales website Rightmove saw visits to the site surpass 150 million for the first time. There were over 152 million visits to Rightmove in January, a seven percent increase on January 2019.

The previous record for the busiest month was last set back in May 2019.

What is more, the number of sales being agreed by agents was up 12 percent compared to the same month in 2019.

This is the biggest year-on-year jump in any month since July 2017.

London saw the biggest uplift, up 26 percent year-on-year, followed by the East of England, up 20 percent.

The top five busiest days ever on Rightmove were all between 21st and 29th January, with Wednesday 29th topping the list. There were over 5.7 million visits on that day, up nine percent on the previous record set back on 24th April 2019.

Time spent by home hunters on the site was up four percent, with people spending a total of 1.17 billion minutes.

Experts from the company have credited Brexit for the uptick in sales.

Rightmove Director and Housing Market Analyst Miles Shipside said: “Home-movers have sprung into action in 2020, with a large number of agents telling us that sales and valuations have picked up significantly in their local areas.

“There’s still an imbalance, with demand growing at a faster rate than new supply and no clear sign yet of any uplift in new listings compared to this time last year, but we could see a new wave of sellers in the coming weeks.

“The annual jump in sales agreed numbers is the highest we’ve seen in any month since the summer of 2017, which saw a significant uplift compared to summer 2016 because of the short-term dip in activity immediately after the Brexit vote.

“The stage certainly looks set for an active spring if those sellers considering putting their homes up for sale end up doing so, but to catch this wave of buyer momentum sellers should take care not to over-price their homes.

“It’s still a price sensitive market and there’s a limit to what buyers can borrow even though mortgage interest rates are temptingly low.”

Brexit Day was regarded to be “good news” by expert Ben Bailey, property expert at estate agent, Nested.

Now Brexit uncertainty is behind Britons to some extent, more feel confident to buy.

He said: “Brexit has been affecting the market ever since the referendum three and a half years ago.

“We expect this to continue somewhat this year with lower transaction volumes, however there is some good news for sellers.

“Buyers in the market right now have already factored Brexit into their decision making and are starting to cite this less and less as a reason for a lowball offer and pulling out from a transaction.”

This means more stability for sellers, and there is likely to be more competition among buyers looking to take advantage of the still relatively low prices.

However, Ben revealed these low prices in the market won’t last long and prices could be driven up as the market picks up.

“This benefit will likely only last so long, as the increased demand will start to help push prices back up,” he said.

“As well as this, it is unlikely that in 2020 property prices will decrease anymore than they already have.

“This is because it has reached a point where it’s just not financially viable for some people to move if prices go any lower.”

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/property/1237776/brexit-news-property-for-sale-market-prices-latest

 

QUOTES

“When written in Chinese, the word ‘crisis’ is composed of two characters. One represents danger and the other represents opportunity.” — John F. Kennedy

 

 

UK Cities House Price Index – February 2018

UK Cities House Price Index – February 2018 3346 4736 admin
  • UK city house price inflation running at 5.2%.
  • London house price growth is 1% per annum with negative growth in 42% of postcodes. The coverage of markets with negative growth is rising as weak demand translates into price falls.
  • Regional cities continue to register above average growth with five cities registering price inflation over 7% – Edinburgh, Liverpool, Leicester, Birmingham and Manchester.

The divergence in house price growth between southern England and regional cities continues with overall HPI at 5.2%. London growth remains slow at +1%, and the greatest downward pressure on prices is being registered in inner London.

City house price growth running at 5.2%

UK city house price inflation was 5.2% in the 12 months to February 2018 compared to 4.0% a year ago. The divergence in house price growth between southern England and regional cities continues.

Half of the 20 cities covered by the index are registering higher annual growth than a year ago (Fig.1). Five cities are registering growth of more than 7% per annum: Edinburgh, Liverpool, Leicester, Birmingham and Manchester.

Ten cities are growing at a slower rate than a year ago with the greatest slowdown in Bristol, Southampton and London as affordability pressures impact market activity and the upward pressure on house prices.

Annual London growth rate slows to +1%

The headline rate of growth across London has slowed to just 1%, down from 4.3% a year ago. This is the lowest annual rate of growth since August 2011. Over the last 3 months average prices have increased by just 0.4%, well down on 5% growth recorded per quarter recorded in 2014 (Fig.2).

Prices falling across 42% of London postcodes

House price indices report the trend in prices for the average property while the reality is there is a distribution of growth around this average. Using Hometrack’s more granular house price indices at postcode district level (e.g. SE5) we find that 42% of postcodes are registering year on year price falls. The remaining 58% are still registering positive growth.

Source: Hometrack House Price Indices

 

 

Source: Hometrack House Price Indices

The highest coverage of price falls since 2008

Fig. 3 shows the proportion of London city postcodes registering positive and negative growth since 1996. The current coverage of markets registering negative growth is the highest since the global financial crisis. There have been other periods when parts of London have registered falling prices and these are explained by economic and other external factors.

Growth in falling markets a drag on headline rate

The coverage of postcodes with negative growth has risen sharply since 2015. This is a result of tax changes impacting overseas and domestic investors and stretched affordability levels for owner occupiers that have been compounded by Brexit uncertainty. Sales volumes are first to be hit when demand weakens and housing turnover across London is down 17% since 2014. Prices are next to follow but the scale of current price falls remains modest. Most markets registering negative growth are experiencing annual price falls of between 0% and -5%.

Coverage of price falls set to expand over 2018

We expect the number of markets with falling house prices to grow further in the coming months as buyers accept lower prices to achieve sales. The net result will be a negative rate of headline price growth for London by the middle of 2018.

Inner London the focal point for lower prices

The greatest downward pressure on prices is being registered in inner London areas where prices are highest prices, yields lowest and with a greater share of discretionary buyers. Subscribers to the Cities Index mailing list can see a full breakdown of house price growth across London by local authority where there are fifteen markets registering negative growth.

No signs of price weakness in large regional cities

The latest results confirm our view that house prices in London are set to drift lower in the next 2-3 years. In contrast, house price growth remains robust in the largest regional cities where similar analysis on rising and falling markets reveals no evidence of localised price falls.

Fig.3 – % London postcodes with +ve or -ve growthx

Source: Hometrack House Price Indices